Increased Heat and Tree Mortality - Alec McGregor

​Climate change will attack Chico State’s reputation for being a lush forested campus. The effects of temperature rise will increase the mortality rate of trees on campus. Cal-Adapt predicts an increase in extreme heat days, from a historical average 3-4 annually to 16-20 annually by 2037. Cal-Adapt also predicts the average temperature during 2037 in Chico will be about 80.4 degrees Fahrenheit. During this time the grounds keeping staff will notice the vegetation and trees wither away. 
Imported/Non-Native vegetation around Chico was planted in respect with the regions’ historic temperatures and native vegetation has adapted to this regions temperature pattern. Drought will also become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can place tree under water stress. Trees under water stress are highly sensitive to elevated temperature because: (1) metabolic responses of biologically-active tissues scale with temperature and (2) atmospheric demand for water, i.e. vapor pressure deficit (VPD), increases with temperature, raising rates of evapotranspiration and reducing plant-available soil water. [1] Since higher annual temperatures weaken trees the potential to fight against pest’s decreases and more trees may succumb. [2]
These dying trees will be a potential threat to student’s safety around campus as trees can lose limbs. Facilities management and services for CSU Chico will have a difficult time choosing what trees to save. The campus for incoming freshman is going to start looking very different as more trees are cut down due to premature death from heat and unsatisfactory watering. In response to many trees being cut down the university will have a planting spree of new climate ready trees. 
[1] Temperature Response Surfaces for Mortality Risk of Tree Species with Future Drought

[2] Climate Ready Trees for California Communities: Update – Dr. Downer, Dr. Doorn, Dr. Berry, Dr. McPHerson