Californians can change our climate destiny, and Chico State has shown the way.
An Open Letter to the Chico State Community
From Mark Stemen, Geography and Planning
I have spent the last year forecasting Chico’s climate future. Using Cal-Adapt, a new software developed by the State that allows scholars to model climate change in California by zip code, I examined various climate projections associated with the Chico area, including temperature, precipitation, wildfire, and snowpack. The results prove both eye-opening and scary. For example, average temperatures in Chico are expected to increase between 4°F to 6°F by 2050 and between 6°F and 10°F by 2100. Extreme heat days, defined as temperatures of 103°F and higher, are forecasted to increase dramatically. In Chico, the number of days of extreme heat is projected to increase from four to between 19 and 26 by 2050, and 26 to 64 by 2100. Put another way, we are looking at possibly weathering two months’ worth of extreme heat with temperatures of 103 and higher.
Cal-Adapt projects that wildfires will increase, with nearby Forest Ranch seeing a 37% increase in area burned by 2050 and 74% by 2100. The snowpack will decline. Buck’s Lake, a headwater for the Feather River, will see snowpack in April decline from a current average of 20 inches to 4 inches by 2050 and a little over a single inch by 2100. The snowpack for Butte Meadows, the headwater for Big Chico Creek, will be permanently snow free sometime between 2050 and 2100, and the portion of the creek running through our campus will go dry for long periods of time. The projected climate future, in short, looks rather bleak for Chico.
During my year of forecasting, I also learned that many people consider this future to be fixed—there is nothing we can do to prevent these changes. In the short term, this is true. Greenhouse gases have about a fifteen-year time lag between release and effect. So, the greenhouse gases that will affect us in 2030 have already been released. We will need to adapt to those impacts and my students and I have been working with both the City and the County to determine what adaptations are necessary.
I have spent the last year forecasting Chico’s climate future. Using Cal-Adapt, a new software developed by the State that allows scholars to model climate change in California by zip code, I examined various climate projections associated with the Chico area, including temperature, precipitation, wildfire, and snowpack. The results prove both eye-opening and scary. For example, average temperatures in Chico are expected to increase between 4°F to 6°F by 2050 and between 6°F and 10°F by 2100. Extreme heat days, defined as temperatures of 103°F and higher, are forecasted to increase dramatically. In Chico, the number of days of extreme heat is projected to increase from four to between 19 and 26 by 2050, and 26 to 64 by 2100. Put another way, we are looking at possibly weathering two months’ worth of extreme heat with temperatures of 103 and higher.
Cal-Adapt projects that wildfires will increase, with nearby Forest Ranch seeing a 37% increase in area burned by 2050 and 74% by 2100. The snowpack will decline. Buck’s Lake, a headwater for the Feather River, will see snowpack in April decline from a current average of 20 inches to 4 inches by 2050 and a little over a single inch by 2100. The snowpack for Butte Meadows, the headwater for Big Chico Creek, will be permanently snow free sometime between 2050 and 2100, and the portion of the creek running through our campus will go dry for long periods of time. The projected climate future, in short, looks rather bleak for Chico.
During my year of forecasting, I also learned that many people consider this future to be fixed—there is nothing we can do to prevent these changes. In the short term, this is true. Greenhouse gases have about a fifteen-year time lag between release and effect. So, the greenhouse gases that will affect us in 2030 have already been released. We will need to adapt to those impacts and my students and I have been working with both the City and the County to determine what adaptations are necessary.
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Beyond 2030, however, the forecasts vary by circumstance. Cal-Adapt provides climate projections for two different greenhouse gas scenarios: a high-emissions scenario, in which “emissions continue to rise strongly through 2050 and plateau around 2100”; and a low-emissions scenario, in which greenhouse gas emissions “peak around 2040, then decline.” The gap between the two scenarios is the difference between present action and inaction. In other words, the difference between 30 days of extreme heat and 60 is us.
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“Wherever human beings are concerned, trend is not destiny.”
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Californians can change our climate destiny, and Chico State has shown the way. Former CSU Chico President Paul Zingg was an original signatory of the American College and University Presidents’ Climate Commitment. The Commitment is organized by Second Nature, a group “dedicated to making the principles of sustainability fundamental to every aspect of higher education.” Chico State pledged to become climate neutral because we “believe firmly in the power, potential, and imperative of higher education’s key role in shaping a sustainable society.” We pledged to operate the campus in a manner that does not alter the climate because “we also understand that technology, infrastructure, global interconnectedness, and our greatest asset—engaged, committed, smart students—allow us to explore bold and innovative solutions and to lead in climate action and sustainable solutions.”
Current President Gayle Hutchinson wants to continue this legacy at CSU Chico. Like Zingg, she understands that “campuses that address the climate challenge by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and by integrating resilience into their curriculum, research, and campus operations will better serve their students and meet their social mandate to help create a vital, ethical, and prosperous civil society.” President Hutchinson has pledged herself to the values and goals of the Climate Commitment and Second Nature; I and many other faculty, staff, and students stand solidly behind her.
Fundamentally, pledging to become climate neutral means pledging to operate the campus without using fossil fuels. The campus has already taken a great step towards this aim by divesting its fossil fuel investments. Now we need to break free from fossil fuels entirely and move toward powering the campus with 100% renewable energy. In the words of Second Nature, “While demand reduction and energy efficiency will continue playing an important role in higher education’s carbon reduction playbook, shifting electricity supply from fossil to renewable sources (decarbonization) is critical to becoming carbon neutral.”
Current President Gayle Hutchinson wants to continue this legacy at CSU Chico. Like Zingg, she understands that “campuses that address the climate challenge by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and by integrating resilience into their curriculum, research, and campus operations will better serve their students and meet their social mandate to help create a vital, ethical, and prosperous civil society.” President Hutchinson has pledged herself to the values and goals of the Climate Commitment and Second Nature; I and many other faculty, staff, and students stand solidly behind her.
Fundamentally, pledging to become climate neutral means pledging to operate the campus without using fossil fuels. The campus has already taken a great step towards this aim by divesting its fossil fuel investments. Now we need to break free from fossil fuels entirely and move toward powering the campus with 100% renewable energy. In the words of Second Nature, “While demand reduction and energy efficiency will continue playing an important role in higher education’s carbon reduction playbook, shifting electricity supply from fossil to renewable sources (decarbonization) is critical to becoming carbon neutral.”
Breaking free from fossil fuels is entirely possible. |
Breaking free from fossil fuels is entirely possible. A study by faculty at Stanford University has mapped out what 100% renewable energy could look like in California by 2050. Our own Economic Development Center has produced a similar report that finds fully developing the Northstate’s solar capacity resources “would, even accounting for demand growth, lead to renewable electricity generation equal to 92 percent of area electricity demand.” Students, faculty and staff across campus are ready, willing, and able to step up to the challenge, and Second Nature has an entire resource library ready to help.
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Chico State has made excellent strides toward sustainability, but we are hindered by past decisions and outdated plans in our pursuit of campus climate neutrality. We first need to break free from these archaic and often fatalistic conclusions about what is possible if we want to break free from fossil fuels. Our current campus Master Plan (2005), for example, speaks to sustainability, but the discussion is limited to landscaping and using recycled materials. The Master Plan does not even mention climate change. This is not too surprising since California’s Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32), Al Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth, and the Second Nature’s Climate Commitment all came after 2005.
Unfortunately, adherence to this outdated but “approved” plan is the rationale given for another 10% increase in campus greenhouse gas production, which would surely tip the future towards Cal-Adapt’s “high emission scenario.” The latest document for the new Siskiyou II project, for example, claims that “no mandatory GHG plans, policies, or regulations or finalized agency guidelines would apply” to the new science building because “the 2005 Campus Master Plan EIR did not evaluate GHG emissions or related plans.” If Chico State is going to take the goal of climate neutrality seriously, we are going to need a new Master Plan.
Unfortunately, adherence to this outdated but “approved” plan is the rationale given for another 10% increase in campus greenhouse gas production, which would surely tip the future towards Cal-Adapt’s “high emission scenario.” The latest document for the new Siskiyou II project, for example, claims that “no mandatory GHG plans, policies, or regulations or finalized agency guidelines would apply” to the new science building because “the 2005 Campus Master Plan EIR did not evaluate GHG emissions or related plans.” If Chico State is going to take the goal of climate neutrality seriously, we are going to need a new Master Plan.
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I participated in the 2005 Master Plan process and I know from experience that a meaningful plan can take years to come to fruition. It is also clear from my year of climate forecasting that we cannot wait that long to take decisive action. We must act now. So, I am asking students, faculty and staff at Chico State to join me in calling for an immediate freeze on any new fossil fuel infrastructure on campus. To be clear, new does not mean all. A freeze on new infrastructure recognizes that we can’t go completely ‘cold-turkey’ with our fossil fuel addiction, as much of Chico State’s existing infrastructure relies on fossil fuel power. Instead, a freeze on new fossil fuel infrastructure will allow Chico State to phase out existing fossil fuel infrastructure overtime, eventually replacing it with systems powered by renewable energy.
Now is the perfect time for a fossil freeze because so many building sub-systems are due for replacement. As part of the 2005 Master Planning process, Pacific Partners Consulting Group conducted an analysis of all existing campus buildings, which “included those items that typically recur on a cyclical basis ranging from 15 to 50 years,” such as roofing, elevators and conveying systems and HVAC equipment and controls. The Pacific Partners’ model forecast that “all factors combined will create a major peak in yearly renewal expenditures starting in about the year 2018 and extending to about 2023.” We need to make sure those replacements are climate neutral. |
Preliminary planning documents clearly show that the architect's preferred designed for Siskiyou II was an all-electric building because it would produce the least amount of greenhouse gasses.
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More importantly, we cannot allow any new buildings we construct to be powered by (and dependent upon) fossil fuels. While the new Siskiyou II will achieve LEED Gold Status, the reliance on natural gas for heating and cooling means this building will emit an additional 660 metric tons of greenhouse gases every year through 2050, given that the heating and cooling systems have an operational and economic life span in excess of 30 years. Anthony Swift, an attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council, recently reasoned that, "In many real respects, infrastructure is destiny." He was speaking about the Keystone pipeline at the time, but the statement could just as well have been made about Siskiyou II.
...we are prepared to lead the race against time and shift the climate towards a brighter—and greener—future. |
Chico State would be the first university in the state—both within the CSU and UC systems—to put a freeze on new fossil fuel infrastructure. Bold initiatives like this are often resisted by the CSU’s central administration in Long Beach. The CSU Chancellor’s Office, for example, has yet to sign on to Second Nature’s Climate Neutrality Pledge. We need to support our administration’s brave ideas and ideals. We need to stand behind our presidential commitment to “explore bold and innovative solutions and to lead in climate action and sustainable solutions.”
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Chico State would be the first university in the state—both within the CSU and UC systems—to put a freeze on new fossil fuel infrastructure. Bold initiatives like this are often resisted by the CSU’s central administration in Long Beach. The CSU Chancellor’s Office, for example, has yet to sign on to Second Nature’s Climate Neutrality Pledge. We need to support our administration’s brave ideas and ideals. We need to stand behind our presidential commitment to “explore bold and innovative solutions and to lead in climate action and sustainable solutions.”
A fossil freeze would demonstrate to students (past, present & future) that Chico State is serious about fighting climate change, and we truly believe that ‘today decides tomorrow’. A fossil freeze would also declare to the nation that when it comes to climate action, we are not only willing to walk the walk: we are prepared to lead the race against time and shift the climate towards a brighter—and greener—future.
A fossil freeze would demonstrate to students (past, present & future) that Chico State is serious about fighting climate change, and we truly believe that ‘today decides tomorrow’. A fossil freeze would also declare to the nation that when it comes to climate action, we are not only willing to walk the walk: we are prepared to lead the race against time and shift the climate towards a brighter—and greener—future.
